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UFI-29-03-2023

During the week, unemployment rate in both urban and rural areas

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29 Mar 23 09:00 AM

UFI-05.06.22

ICICI Bank’s weekly UFI1 had a marginal moderation to 111.4 vs. 111.8 the week before. 

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05 Jun 22 09:00 AM

CENTRAL BANK ZONE

Reserve Bank of India

MPC unanimously kept the policy rate and stance unchanged at 5.5% thus maintaining a data dependent outlook. Growth projections for FY26 are unchanged at 6.5% despite mixed indicators with emphasis on government spending and rural demand in the near-term and transmission in H2 to support growth

MPC revised FY26 forecast sharply lower to 3.1% (3.7% earlier) driven by lower food prices in near-term. Medium-term inflation seen above 4% with Q4FY26 at 4.4% and Q1FY27 at 4.9%. Liquidity support is likely to continue for transmission with CRR cut from September onwards to inject INR 2.5tn of core liquidity. Retaining WACR as the operating target of monetary policy is also positive since targeting SORR could have led to running a tighter liquidity regime.

With inflation marked lower to 3.1%, bar for next rate cut is high and contingent on growth. While we do expect growth to slow down in H2 as fiscal impulse wanes and external headwinds build-up, the impact is manageable and known with a lag by when inflation would be moving up. Growth should be supported by government capex in H1 and rural demand on demand side and agri and construction sector on supply side. Hence, we don’t see RBI cutting rates in October as well and we see a long hold on the cards

Federal Reserve

The FOMC maintained status quo on expected lines at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, although the decision was not unanimous as two of eleven voting members dissented. The dissenting votes were on expected lines.

We subsequently maintain our view of a back-loaded easing cycle commencing in September with 75bps worth of rate cuts expected in 2025. The FOMC could do more rate cuts if growth deteriorates much more rapidly or the unemployment rate rises much sharper than expected.

The Fed is expected to further cut rate by 75bps in 2026.

Bank of England

In its policy meeting in August, the BoE cut policy rates by 25bps and re-affirmed that it will a "gradual and careful approach". The hawkish rate cut was a result of a 5-4 decision to ease policy.

In its next policy meeting in September, the BoE is expected to maintain status quo as it faces the prospects of rising inflation driven by services and housing bills.

The BoE is expected to cut rates by another 50 bps by the end of 2026.

European Central Bank

In the policy meeting in July, the ECB maintained status quo stating statting that inflation is currently at the medium term target of 2% and that growth has remained resilient despite a turbulent external environment. Going forward the bank has stated that it will take a meeting by meeting data dependent approch closing monitoring the external environment.

The ECB is expected to keep rates steady, given the stable inflation profile and robust labour markets.

Our base-case for the ECB the policy rate by a further cumulative 25bps resulting in a terminal rate of 1.75%.

People's Bank of China

The PBoC announced: (a) a reduction in the seven day repurchase reference rate by 30bps, (b) cut in the one-year MLF rate by 30bps in September 2024, (c ) cut in the RRR by 50bps in May 2025 and kept unchanged since then, (d) excluding rural banks from RRR and (e ) cut in the minimum down-payment ratio from 25% to 15%.

We expect a further 25bps-50bps worth of rate cuts and RRR cuts of an additional quantum of 50bps in the seven day repurchase agreement.

MARKET EVENTS CALENDAR

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17th Nov

Events

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TREASURER'S CORNER

Prasanna Balachander

Group Head – Global Markets – Sales, Trading and Research

State of the Economy

07 Jun 22 03:05 PM Exclusive Videos

Rupee hitting record lows

10 May 22 06:37 PM Exclusive Videos

Inflation Hit Bond Market

20 Apr 22 06:23 PM Exclusive Videos

GDP may grow by 8.2%. Thanks to IT, realty, Startups

11 Feb 22 01:32 PM Featured Articles

Budget 2022

02 Feb 22 03:24 PM Media Bytes

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IN-HOUSE VIEWS

Last updated: 12 September 2025

Q32025

Q42025

Q12026

This content is issued by ICICI Bank Limited ("ICICI Bank") for generic educational, and information purposes only, and is not intended to replace independent professional judgment. The views and opinions expressed herein, are those of the individual authors/speakers/contributors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of ICICI Bank or the position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. ICICI Bank may make business decisions that may be at odds with the positions expressed herein. With regards to the information contained herein, ICICI Bank shall not be held responsible for any inaccuracies or omissions, or for any claims, losses or damages arising in any way from or in connection with errors or omissions in any information presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. ICICI Bank makes no accuracy or reliability or warranty of any kind, express or implied, in relation to the information contained herein, or any view, position or information contained therein, or presented by the authors/speakers/contributors. The information contained herein, may include links to third-party resources and websites. These links are provided for your convenience only and do not signify that ICICI Bank endorses, approves or makes any representation or claim regarding the accuracy, copyright, compliance, legality, security, suitableness, the absence of viruses or malware, or any other aspects of the third-party resources or websites.

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